Corpus Christi, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

618
FXUS64 KCRP 131816
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
116 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025

Key Messages:

- Major to Extreme risk of heat related impacts expected across the
Brush Country and Rio grande Plains on Wednesday. Moderate across
the eastern areas.

- Heat Advisory in effect for portions of South Texas Wednesday.

- Elevated Fire Weather Conditions over the Rio Grande Plains
and Brush Country on Wednesday.

A mid/upper level ridge will slowly move east placing the axis
across S TX by Wednesday. The center of the high will nudge
northeastward toward Deep S TX. This will lead to a Major to Extreme
Risk of heat related impacts across the Rio Grande Plains and Brush
Country Wednesday afternoon. A Moderate Risk is expected across the
remainder of S TX.

Unseasonably hot temperatures up to 112 Degrees across the Rio
Grande Plains to around 100 across the inland Coastal Plains can be
expected Wednesday. The combination of the high temperatures and
increasing low level moisture/higher RH values will lead to heat
indices 105-114 across the western 2/3rds of S TX. A Heat Advisory
is in effect Wednesday from 1 PM to 8 PM. This includes inland
Kleberg to inland San Patricio to Live Oak and areas west.

In addition to the heat, there will be Elevated Fire Weather
conditions across the Brush Country Wednesday afternoon. Winds are
expected to below critical conditions, but the Energy Release
Component (ERC) percentiles are in the 70-95th range and minimum
relative humidity is forecast to be 15-30%. This will lead to at
least elevated fire weather conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025

Key Messages:

- Major to extreme risk of heat-related impacts daily.

- Extension of current Heat Advisory into the long-term likely.

- Elevated fire weather conditions over the Brush Country daily.

A prolonged heat event is expected to unfold across South Texas
through at least the weekend, driven by a strong mid- to upper-level
ridge extending across the region. This ridge will remain overhead
before slowly shifting eastward towards the Gulf early next week,
resulting in persistently hot and increasingly oppressive conditions.

South-southeasterly surface flow will transport deeper moisture into
the region, allowing humidity levels to climb. Daily afternoon heat
indices are forecast to range from 100-115 degF, with the highest
heat indices generally west of the I-37 corridor. In addition,
WBGTs are expected to reach 85-90 degF, indicating a high threat
level for heat-related stress. Minimal overnight relief is expected,
with lows only falling into the mid- to upper 70s. This lack of
recovery, combined with the unusually early onset of dangerous heat,
will support a daily heat risk ranging from major (level 3 of 4) to
extreme (level 4 of 4) for much of the CWA.

All that to say, please take heat safety precautions seriously: stay
hydrated, limit time outdoors, avoid strenuous activity during peak
heating hours, and always check vehicles for children and pets! More
guidance is available at weather.gov/heat.

Meanwhile, a developing surface low over the South-Central Plains
will enhance south-southeasterly surface winds across the region,
with sustained speeds around 15 mph and gusts exceeding 20-25 mph.
These winds combined with minimum relative humidity levels of 15-30%
and ERC values in the 70th-95th percentile, will contribute to
elevated fire weather conditions across the Brush Country through
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the TAF cycle. The
exception will be from ALI to VCT where brief light patchy fog
will lead to MVFR VSBYs early Wednesday morning. The main concern
will be Low Level Wind Shear overnight. A southerly 40KT Low
Level Jet is forecast to develop while surface winds diminish,
which will lead to LLWS, generally after 06Z and mainly for ALI,
CRP and VCT. By mid morning Wednesday, surface winds will begin to
increase with frequent gusts around 25KT. Occasional gusts to
around 30KT will be possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 107 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025

A strong southerly breeze (BF 6) is expected tonight before
decreasing back to fresh to strong breeze (BF 5-6) Wednesday
afternoon. Small Craft Advisory is in effect through early
Wednesday afternoon. A fresh to strong (BF 5-6) onshore breeze
will keep Small Craft Advisory conditions intact through Thursday
afternoon with seas 5 to 7 feet. A moderate to fresh (BF 4-5)
onshore breeze with seas 4 to 6 feet will then persist Thursday
night through early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    74  95  76  94 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          72  95  73  94 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            75 110  78 109 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             72 104  74 104 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          76  88  77  89 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           74 111  75 108 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        72 101  75 101 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       77  86  78  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ229>231-239>241.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ229>231-
     239>244.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Wednesday for GMZ231-232-236-
     237-250-255-270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE/81
LONG TERM....KRS/98
AVIATION...TE/81